Breadth Reclaims 50% as Oil Relief Powers the Best Session Since April.
Daily Intelligence explains the market environment before the U.S. session. Stock-specific TT101 research remains in Daily Edge.
Structure: bullish · direction: strengthening
Official TT UNIVERSE breadth for Monday: 430 of 825 stocks bullish (52.1%), 69 neutral (8.4%) and 326 bearish (39.5%).
Among 787 same-symbol stocks, 317 strengthened, 34 weakened and 436 were unchanged. Net rating momentum was +35.96pp and matched bullish breadth rose 12.96pp.
7,549.94+2.35% · 9 Nov close
19.92−22.31% · 9 Nov close
4.88%+2 bp · 9 Nov close
$4,146/oz+1.74% · 10 Nov 06:55 JST
Tuesday-session priorities
- October CPI at 8:30am ET→ consensus is 0.3% month on month; inflation will test the newly priced December hike and Monday’s equity rebound.
- Breadth confirmation→ 52.1% of 825 eligible stocks are bullish and net rating momentum is +35.96pp; participation crossed the mechanical bullish threshold.
- AI rebound versus single-name risk→ SOX rebounded while AMD surged, but Nvidia fell 4.3%; separate broad recovery from company-specific governance risk.
- Volatility reset→ VIX fell to 19.92 and MOVE to about 86; lower volatility supports risk appetite, but CPI can reverse the rates leg quickly.
- Oil relief and rates→ WTI fell to $86.85 and Brent to $92.57 as Iran talks reduced escalation risk; lower oil eased inflation pressure and supported cyclicals.
This week’s control points
A · Economic, Fed and Treasury calendar
B · Earnings calendar · 9–13 November
- Mon 9 Nov · REPORTED
$HIMS revenue rose 49% to $890.4m, but gross margin fell and full-year EBITDA guidance was reduced.
- Tue 10 Nov · TODAY
BMO: $TDG, $SE, $VG, $ONON; AMC: $CRWV, $PBR, $CPNG and $TOST.CoreWeave’s capacity, debt and outlook are the most important AI-infrastructure test.Release timing is verified where issuer notices are available; other calendar entries remain provisional.
- Wed 11 Nov
Veterans Day; selected international and smaller-company reports continue.Watch liquidity and sector read-through rather than forcing single-name conclusions.The canonical Earnings Intelligence page was checked at 10 Nov 08:00 JST.
- Thu 12 Nov
AMC: $CSCO, $AMAT and $NU; verified issuer calls begin around 4:30pm ET.AI networking, chip-equipment demand, China exposure and forward orders are the main tests.Earnings Intelligence remains the detailed source for reconciled results and cash-flow definitions.
- Fri 13 Nov
The calendar is lighter; confirm company timing before relying on provisional entries.
What to watch: whether earnings breadth supports Monday’s recovery and whether CPI changes the discount-rate backdrop.
C · IPO calendar
No material imminent U.S. IPO with sufficiently verified timing was added; provider dates remain subject to change.
3 · Prior U.S. session
Monday 9 November: the S&P 500 rose 2.35%, Nasdaq Composite 2.74%, Dow 2.15% and Russell 2000 3.15%; VIX fell 22.31% to 19.92.
Falling oil prices and strong corporate results supported a broad rebound, with small caps leading. Nvidia fell 4.3% on company-specific governance scrutiny, showing that index strength did not erase single-name risk.
TT UNIVERSE breadth was 430 bullish, 69 neutral and 326 bearish across 825 eligible stocks. RSI(14): 67 names (8.1%) above 70 and 32 (3.9%) below 30. Top RSI: SGRY 90.64, VNT 89.70, PCOR 84.35; bottom: NEU 11.54, DOX 17.30, IONS 20.02. Relative volume is not directional; ADX measures strength.
5 · Market-/theme-significant corporate intelligence
$AAON · Record sales and raised outlook
AAON reported record Q3 sales of $707.4m (+84.1% YoY), backlog of $1.9bn and year-to-date operating cash flow of $146.9m. It raised 2026 sales-growth guidance to 72–75%, while disclosing first-half restatements and a material control weakness.
$TTWO · GTA VI launch dominates the outlook
Take-Two reported fiscal Q2 net bookings of $1.60bn, down 18% YoY, and reiterated FY2027 bookings guidance of $8.0–8.2bn. GTA VI is scheduled for 19 November; launch execution and recurrent spending remain the core catalysts.
Earnings Intelligence
Last Research Check 10 Nov 2026, 08:00 JST — New Earnings. HIMS revenue grew 49% but margin and EBITDA guidance weakened; KKR fee-related earnings rose 27% as AUM exceeded $800bn. The detailed monitored-company analysis remains on the canonical page.Full Earnings Intelligence.
Sentiment & Fed rate monitor
Previous close 22 · 1 week ago 19 · 1 month ago 44 · 1 year ago 20. Sentiment improved after Monday’s rally but remains in Fear; this is context, not a standalone trading signal.
Source: CNN Business· Latest published reading for 9 Nov 2026; page accessed 10 Nov 2026, 09:00 JST.
Current Fed target: 3.75%–4.00%
For 9 December, futures imply an 81.8% chance of a 25bp hike to 4.00–4.25% versus 18.2% hold. Previous day: 75.5% hike / 24.5% hold; previous week: 73.4% / 26.6%. A hike remains the modal outcome. These are market-implied estimates, not Fed guidance.
Source: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor· Updated 9 Nov 2026, 4:05 PM EST. Current: hold 18.2%, 25bp hike 81.8%; previous day 24.5% / 75.5%; previous week 26.6% / 73.4%.
F · Market dashboard
| Asset | Reading | Change / basis |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.92 | −22.31% · 9 Nov close |
| U.S. 10Y | 4.88% | +2 bp · 9 Nov close |
| U.S. 2Y | 4.56% | +5 bp · 9 Nov close |
| 2s10s | +32 bp | −3 bp flatter |
| S&P 500 | 7,549.94 | +2.35% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,253.14 | +2.74% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,840.81 | +3.15% |
| SOX | 9,849.33 | +4.89% |
| DXY | 101.68 | −0.60% · 10 Nov 06:55 JST |
| USD/JPY | 157.91 | −0.39% · 10 Nov 06:55 JST |
| Gold · TV GOLD | $4,146/oz | +1.74% · 10 Nov 06:55 JST |
| WTI | $86.85/bbl | −4.38% · 9 Nov settlement |
| Bitcoin | $74,879 | +0.39% · 10 Nov 06:55 JST |
| MOVE | 86.0 | −12.2% · 9 Nov close |
Cash indexes and VIX are dated Monday 9 November. Yields use 9 November closes. DXY, USD/JPY, gold and Bitcoin are cross-asset readings at 10 November 06:55 JST; WTI is the 9 November settlement. Bitcoin is continuously traded; cash indexes are not futures.
2 · Market regime
Current structure: BULLISH. Direction: STRENGTHENING.TT UNIVERSE breadth was 52.1% bullish, 8.4% neutral and 39.5% bearish across 825 eligible stocks on Monday 9 November.
Among 787 same-symbol stocks, 317 strengthened, 34 weakened and 436 were unchanged. Net rating momentum was +35.96pp; matched bullish breadth rose 12.96pp. The mechanical verdict is BULLISH / STRENGTHENING—broad participation is above 50% and improvement is decisive.
Small caps were 52% bullish (191/366), mid caps 55% (214/391) and large caps 37% (25/68). Consumer durables led at 87% bullish (20/23), while energy minerals lagged at 3% (1/31). The 2s10s curve was about +32bp.
4 · Politics / policy / macro
Oil fell sharply as U.S.–Iran talks reduced immediate escalation risk, easing inflation pressure and supporting a broad equity rebound. This is a plausible catalyst, not proof of a single cause; TT UNIVERSE independently confirms that participation improved across the eligible universe.
Monday’s stronger market followed Friday’s resilient jobs data, which lifted expectations for a December Fed hike. Tuesday CPI is the next major rates test. No new Fed, ECB, BOJ or BoE decision concluded since the BoE’s 5 November meeting.
6 · Prior economic data
Monday data · completed
| Indicator | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale sales | +2.8% | Unavailable | +2.0% revised |
| Wholesale inventories | +0.7% | +0.6% | +0.6% revised |
| Inventory/sales ratio | 1.21 | Unavailable | 1.23 |
Rates and policy
| Indicator | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. 2Y | 4.56% | +5 bp | 4.51% |
| U.S. 10Y | 4.88% | +2 bp | 4.86% |
| Fed target range | 3.75–4.00% | 81.8% hike | 3.75–4.00% |
Market implication
Wholesale sales outpaced inventories, lowering the inventory/sales ratio to 1.21. Treasury yields rose modestly as markets increased the probability of a December Fed hike ahead of CPI.
G · Japan physical precious metals
Nihon Material official publication: 9 Nov 2026, 10:00 JST (latest available before cutoff; tax included, ¥/gram).
| Metal | Retail | Buyback | Daily change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | ¥23,042 | ¥22,685 | +¥32 |
| Platinum | ¥8,872 | ¥8,449 | +¥202 |
| Palladium | ¥6,012 | ¥5,462 | +¥39 |
| Silver | ¥302.72 | ¥285.67 | +¥3.63 |
Research is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices and probabilities are time-sensitive.