TT101 DAILY INTELLIGENCE · ISSUE 64 · 25 SEP 2026
Yields Stay High. Buy-Zone Quality Stays Strong.
Full web edition. The website carries the complete decision-useful intelligence from the PDF, with links into the living TT101 research system.
How to Read the Daily Edge
Read in this order: 1 Regime → 2 Themes → 3 Entry Windows → 4 TT Swing & Flow → 5 Company Research → 6 Portfolio / Capital Decision → 7 Final Inference.
Regime tells you how aggressive to be. M Support tells you where structural location is favorable. TT Good RR flags favorable risk/reward. Direct New means research immediately but do not chase. SELECT is a TT101 research designation, not a personalized buy instruction.
1. Daily Edge — the executive summary
REGIME: SELECTIVE RISK-ON / 10Y YIELD PRESSURE
| Trending | 94 vs 92 yesterday | QM+ | 76 · 81% |
| TS Active | 57 · 61% | Median RV | 0.77 |
| Turnover | $201B | Direct New | 8 |
- TXN: one of the cleanest Leader + Trending M Support names. M Support 268.57.
- DELL: fresh CoreWatch TT Swing favorable-RR event, LONG with RR(M) 2.1:1.
- MPC / VLO: high-quality Direct New discoveries; research now, do not chase.
- NYT: standout Y Support quality name.
Single takeaway: buy-zone quality is stronger than the index tape suggests. Favor high-quality M Support / TT Good RR names over momentum chasing.
2. Market Regime — how aggressive should we be?
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished Thursday near flat; Dow slipped about 0.3%.
- 10Y Treasury yield finished around 5.22%, keeping long-duration growth under valuation pressure.
- Electronic Technology + Technology Services account for roughly 83% of Trending turnover.
- Trending expanded to 94 from 92; QM-positive eased to 76 (81%).
- Median RV fell to 0.77 while dollar turnover improved to about $201B.
- Trending DOWN contains 32 names, but weakness is dispersed rather than systemic.
- TS-active names rose to 57: the opportunity set is becoming more selective, not collapsing.
Position rule: entry quality comes from TT Good RR / M Support; stock priority and sizing remain tied to FCF quality after the story passes.
3. Theme & Leadership Map — where is capital flowing?
| Theme | Stocks | Status |
|---|---|---|
| AI Compute / Memory | AMD INTC MU SNDK ARM STX HPE | Strong |
| AI Networking / Optics | APH ANET LITE MRVL GLW | Strong |
| Enterprise AI Software | DDOG NOW VEEV SHOP | Strong |
| Refining / Energy | MPC VLO FRO APA | Emerging |
| Data-Center Power | NVT ETN MPWR VICR | Selective |
AI remains the dominant long-side cluster, but software provides a useful economic diversifier. Refining is the important fresh theme as MPC and VLO entered Trending directly.
4. Structural Entry Windows — where is location favorable?
CoreWatch M Support
APH 83.08
NVT 162.88
TER 387.70
AEM 193.88
DDOG 256.92
Leaders M Support
TXN 270.65
GLW 154.15
APH 83.08
TER 387.70
SHOP 145.16
CRM 238.22
NOW 137.78
MPWR 1335.55
Trending M Support
TXN 270.65 · APH 83.08 · EBAY 107.83 · NVT 162.88 · TER 387.70 · DDOG 256.92 · SHOP 145.16 · NOW 137.78 · MPWR 1335.55 · HCA 423.48 · CORT 118.51
Convergence: ALL THREE — APH, TER · CORE + TREND — NVT, DDOG · LEADER + TREND — TXN, SHOP, NOW, MPWR.
Y Support: NYT 63.05 / YS 61.96 / +1.8% · CLSK 14.26 / 13.87 / +2.8% · SMCI 41.51 / 41.04 / +1.2%. NYT is the only Y Support name today with a clearly positive business-quality / FCF profile.
5. TT Swing + Trending Flow — setup, RR and change
| Ticker | Signal | RR | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | LONG / RR(M) GOOD | RR(M) 2.1:1 | Day 16 · fresh favorable-RR event |
| APH | LONG / HOLD D3 | RR(Q) 3.6:1 · RR(M) 1.3:1 | Active |
| NVT | LONG / BREAKOUT D4 | RR(Q) 5.4:1 · RR(M) 1.1:1 | Breakout |
| HPE | LONG / BREAKOUT D13 | RR(Q) 0.1:1 · RR(M) 1.4:1 | Mature move |
| IAU | SHORT / BREAKOUT D2 | RR(Q) 7.3:1 · RR(M) 1.6:1 | ETF macro context only |
New In: CORT CRL FRO GDDY HCA IONQ MPC MXL SITM VLO
Direct New: CRL FRO GDDY IONQ MPC MXL SITM VLO
Graduated: ETN NBIS ULTA
Out: AKAM ASML EL FCX MDB SNX TSEM U
6. Short Side — where is weakness concentrated?
Trending DOWN — 32: LPLA · SMR · COHR · WULF · SOFI · ONDS · OKLO · ORCL · BABA · RIVN · MP · AAOI · ASTS · ARES · NCLH · RCL · GRAB · FN · PCG · AAL · CTVA · NRG · TSCO · MTZ · DKS · CLX · BLDR · CCJ · UAL · BG · F · GIS
| Ticker | Price | M Resistance | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| WULF | 16.29 | 16.51 | -1.3% |
| CTVA | 79.45 | 81.47 | -2.5% |
| BG | 110.21 | 112.77 | -2.3% |
- WULF has severe FCF deterioration but meaningful HPC catalyst / squeeze risk.
- BG raised full-year EPS guidance after a strong Q2; technical weakness is not automatically a broken business.
- CTVA is the cleaner research-next name of the three, not an automatic short.
7. Single Research Queue — is the company worth owning?
Merged queue: TXN · GLW · DELL · APH · NVT · TER · DDOG · SHOP · NOW · MPC/VLO · NYT
- TXN — SELECT: Q2 revenue +23% YoY; TTM FCF $6.5B; Q3 guidance stepped higher.
- GLW — SELECT: Q2 core sales +17%; Optical Communications +32%; Enterprise Networks +65%.
- DELL — SELECT: fiscal Q2 revenue $47.0B, +58%; full-year revenue guidance raised to $192B.
- APH — SELECT: Q2 sales +55%, organic +30%, orders $10.7B, FCF $1.2B.
- NVT — SELECT: record sales, 47% organic growth, strong cash generation, raised outlook.
- TER — SELECT: Q2 revenue +104%; AI compute/memory drove semiconductor test.
- DDOG — SELECT: Q2 revenue +36% to $1.12B; $279M FCF.
- SHOP — SELECT: broad 30%+ growth across core commerce metrics and strong FCF conversion.
- NOW — SELECT: subscription growth, AI monetization and recurring software economics remain intact.
- MPC / VLO — WAIT ENTRY: exceptional Q2 refining economics and strong cash generation, but no preferred TT Good RR / M Support entry yet.
- NYT — Y SUPPORT WATCH: Q2 revenue +11.2%, digital subscription revenue +16.4%, digital ads +20.7%, 13.35M subscribers.
8. Portfolio + Capital Decision — does it fit the book?
Current book / intent: ANET — confirmed starter · ENTG — confirmed starter · ETN — order pending · NOW — desired / unconfirmed.
| Ticker | Status | Location | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | SELECT | 270.65 / MS 268.57 / +0.8% | Leader MS + Trend MS |
| GLW | SELECT | 154.15 / M Support active* | Leader MS |
| DELL | SELECT | 536.02 / RR(M) 2.1:1 | TT Good RR |
| APH | SELECT | 83.08 / MS 81.06 / +2.5% | Core + Leader + Trend MS |
| EBAY | SELECTIVE | 107.83 / MS 106.41 / +1.3% | Trend MS |
| NVT | SELECT | 162.88 / MS 158.79 / +2.6% | Core + Trend MS |
| TER | SELECT | 387.70 / MS 380.60 / +1.9% | Core + Leader + Trend MS |
| AEM | WAIT / MACRO | 193.88 / M Support active* | Core MS |
| DDOG | SELECT | 256.92 / MS 249.59 / +2.9% | Core + Trend MS |
| SHOP | SELECT | 145.16 / MS 140.96 / +3.0% | Leader + Trend MS |
| CRM | SELECTIVE | 238.22 / MS 234.69 / +1.5% | Leader MS |
| NOW | SELECT | 137.78 / MS 136.46 / +1.0% | Leader + Trend MS |
*For CoreWatch / Leader-only M Support names, the feed confirms the stock is inside the filter but does not always export the exact pivot value. TT101 does not fabricate it.
9. Final Desk Inference — what matters most today?
- Regime: Selective Risk-On with a hostile rate backdrop. Favor location over chasing.
- Hot themes: AI compute / optics / enterprise software remain core; refining is the important fresh theme.
- Buy-zone priority: TXN remains the cleanest high-quality Leader + Trending M Support setup; GLW, APH, NVT and TER also combine strong stories with structural location.
- Hot RR: DELL is the fresh CoreWatch TT Swing Good RR name, LONG with RR(M) 2.1:1.
- Silent trend: MPC / VLO are the best Direct New discoveries; catalyst is real, location is not yet preferred.
- Rare long-term location: NYT is the standout Y Support name.
- Short side: only WULF / CTVA / BG are near M Resistance; use as research filters, not automatic shorts.
- Portfolio: NOW remains the cleanest software diversifier; ETN remains the power-infrastructure diversifier. New hardware exposure must be judged against ANET / ENTG concentration.
- Next session workflow: regime → theme → four support windows → CoreWatch TT Good RR → IN/OUT flow → single research queue → actionable list.
TT101 workflow: Hot Theme → Hot Stock → TT Good RR / M Support → one story check → capital decision → TT Swing management.
Sources referenced in Issue 64 include company Q2 2026 investor relations releases, Reuters Sep 21–24, 2026, MT Newswires Sep 24, and TT101 internal Sep 25 breadth / participation uploads. Research and education only; not individualized investment advice.