Indexes Rebound, but Sector Splits Persist Before Inflation and Earnings.
Daily Intelligence explains the market environment before the U.S. session. Stock-specific TT101 research remains in Daily Edge.
Selective Risk-On · Transition
Low equity volatility · restrictive rates, bear-flattening · participation improved, but leadership remains uneven.
Status: Recovering; not yet broad confirmation.
What matters for the next U.S. session
- Monday’s equity/bond-market mismatch → less synchronous price discovery can exaggerate headline-driven equity moves. Exposed: U.S. stocks, financials, rate-sensitive technology.
- Inflation evidence versus resilient indexes → a renewed price-pressure surprise would challenge valuation relief; focus on the rate reaction. Exposed: Treasuries, USD, gold, growth and consumer shares.
- Headline relief versus physical fuel availability → diplomatic assurances do not guarantee restored supply or lower corporate input costs. Exposed: energy, airlines, transports, inflation-sensitive assets.
- Participation versus durable leadership → a rebound needs fewer persistent new lows and stronger chip participation to become convincing. Exposed: Nasdaq, SOX, small caps and equal-weight equities.
- Earnings delivery and AI capacity → bank credit trends and chip/optical execution will test whether demand converts into durable earnings. Exposed: financials, semiconductors and optical networking.
Next U.S. session: Monday, 12 October
A. Economic Calendar
| Date · ET / JST | Event | Consensus / Prior | Primary exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 · regular hours | U.S. cash stocks open; U.S. fixed-income holiday | — | Liquidity / price discovery |
| Mon 12 · 12:50 / Tue 01:50 | Fed Hammack | — | Rates / USD |
| Mon 12 · 19:50 / Tue 08:50 | Japan producer prices, YoY | 7.6% / 7.6% | JPY / imported inflation |
| Wed 14 · 08:30 / 21:30 | U.S. CPI: headline / core MoM | 0.6% / 0.4%; 0.2% / 0.3% | Fed path / duration |
| Thu 15 · 08:30 / 21:30 | U.S. PPI: headline / core MoM | 0.5% / 0.4%; 0.3% / 0.2% | Margins / inflation |
| Thu 15 · 08:30 / 21:30 | Initial claims | 197K / 197K | Labor / front-end rates |
Economic calendar · SIFMA holiday notice · ET is EDT; JST rolls to the next day where shown. No U.S. cash session Saturday.
B. Weekly Earnings Calendar
| Day · upcoming week | Company / timing | Consensus EPS / revenue (USD) | What matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 | No selected market-significant U.S. reports | — | Holiday liquidity |
| Tue 13 | JPM · 07:00 ET; GS, WFC, C · time unconfirmed | EPS / revenue: JPM $5.89 / $50.99B; GS $14.50 / $17.15B; WFC $1.85 / $22.36B; C $2.67 / $23.71B | Net interest income; credit costs / trading |
| Tue 13 | JNJ, UNH · time unconfirmed | JNJ $2.78 / $25.35B; UNH $4.12 / $111.31B | Guidance; medical cost ratio |
| Wed 14 | ASML, BAC, MS, BLK · time unconfirmed | ASML $11.97 / $13.13B; BAC $1.12 / $30.83B; MS $3.05 / $20.11B; BLK $14.26 / $7.45B | AI bookings / China restrictions; credit / flows |
| Thu 15 | TSM, SCHW, JBHT · time unconfirmed | TSM $4.39 / $45.28B; SCHW $1.67 / $7.22B; JBHT $1.98 / $3.57B | AI capacity / margins; cash sorting; freight demand |
| Fri 16 | TRV, TFC · time unconfirmed | TRV $6.87 / $11.31B; TFC $1.12 / $5.35B | Catastrophe losses; credit / funding |
Weekly earnings calendar · JPM timing · TODAY: no U.S. cash session. Dates/estimates refreshed; times unconfirmed unless explicitly supplied.
C. IPO Calendar
| Expected event | Terms / status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 · Iambic Therapeutics (IAM) | 9.4M shares; $15–17 range; ~$150M indicated | AI-assisted drug-development listing |
| Fri 16 · City Therapeutics (CTY) | 9.7M shares; $17–19; ~$175M indicated | Biotech risk appetite |
IPOScoop calendar · Proposed terms and dates remain subject to pricing changes.
F. Market Dashboard
| Market | Fri 9 Oct close / specified snapshot | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.85 | −3.57% |
| U.S. 10Y | 5.242% | +0.7 bp |
| U.S. 2Y | 4.791% | +2.9 bp |
| 2s10s | +45.1 bp | −2.2 bp; flatter |
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | +0.59% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,366.17 | +0.64% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,806.98 | +0.46% |
| SOX | Exact close unavailable | Approximately −0.4% reported |
| DXY | 102.232 | +0.12% |
| USD/JPY · Friday last quote | 158.337 | +0.29% |
| Gold spot · Friday last quote | $4,194.09/oz | +1.46% |
| WTI November settlement | $91.85/bbl | +0.39% |
| Bitcoin · 10 Oct 07:13 JST live | $82,394 | +0.88% source daily quote |
| MOVE | 98.47 | −2.22% |
TradingView closed-market readings; curve calculated from listed yields. AP index closes · WTI settlement / MT Newswires · SOX daily direction. Spot/FX last quotes and live Bitcoin are distinct from cash-index closes; no futures substituted for indexes.
D–E. Sentiment & Fed Rate Monitor
Fear & Greed
| Period | Score | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Latest | 45 | Neutral |
| Yesterday | 38 | Fear |
| One week ago | 40 | Fear |
| One month ago | 38 | Fear |
Daily +7 · Weekly +5 points. Site reported updated 24 minutes before retrieval (~07:08 JST, 10 Oct). FearGreedMeter. Changes calculated from displayed historical scores.
Fed Rate Monitor
| Decision/path | Probability | Prior-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · +25 bp hike | 19% | Unavailable on a comparable source basis |
| Oct 28 · hold | 81% (binary complement) | — |
| December hike | 84% reported | Unavailable |
CME pricing reported by Reuters on 9 Oct; dated snapshot, not an exact closing distribution. Reuters / CME. A conflicting cached rate-probability table was excluded; market pricing is not a forecast.
Friday’s recovery remained uneven
Dip-buying and reduced immediate escalation concerns supported the rebound. Ten of eleven S&P sectors advanced, yet Nasdaq new lows outnumbered new highs 209 to 41; turnover was below its recent average. Friday recap.
Only material channels
Iran: Trump said the U.S. would not strike Iran before the midterm elections. This reduced immediate escalation anxiety without establishing a completed peace or fuel-supply settlement. WSJ.
Energy supply: Gulf production shutdowns ahead of Hurricane Isaias kept physical supply risk relevant despite diplomatic relief. MT Newswires.
Friday’s market-important releases
| Release | Actual | Consensus | Prior | Observed reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan sentiment, preliminary | 46.3 | 47.6 | 48.1 | Equities rose despite weaker consumer mood |
| 1-year inflation expectations | 4.7% | Not supplied | 4.6% | Inflation concern persisted |
| 5-year inflation expectations | 3.5% | Not supplied | 3.4% | No broad risk reversal evident |
Release data · Consumer report. The reaction is observational, not proof that this release drove the session.
Latest official publication · 9 Oct 2026 · 10:00 JST
Weekend: latest Friday publication. Tax included; ¥/gram. Changes are versus the previous official publication.
| Metal | Retail | Day | Buyback | Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | ¥23,311 | +¥270 | ¥22,954 | +¥270 |
| Platinum | ¥9,438 | +¥167 | ¥9,015 | +¥167 |
| Palladium | ¥6,556 | +¥104 | ¥6,006 | +¥104 |
| Silver | ¥342.21 | −¥0.33 | ¥325.16 | −¥0.33 |
Catalyst Radar
- $LITE — Lumentum: its CEO said optical capacity is nearly sold out through early 2029; AI demand looks strong, but delivery capacity and revenue conversion remain the test. TradingView / Dow Jones
- $SPCX / $VZ / $T / $TMUS: Friday’s carrier selloff is a new competitive repricing after the previously reported spectrum acquisition, not a newly announced deal. FCC approval and deployment economics remain unresolved. TradingView / dpa-AFX
- $DAL — Delta: lowered its full-year profit outlook to about $5.35 per share as higher fuel costs squeezed margins; a direct warning for airline economics. TradingView / Seeking Alpha
For market intelligence and educational purposes only; not investment advice. Data may update after publication.