TT101 DAILY INTELLIGENCE · 24 OCT 2026 · SATURDAY WEEK-AHEAD SETUP · FRIDAY 23 OCT CLOSE

Oil Shock Overrides Tech Stabilization—Fed and Big Tech Set Next Week’s Test.

Daily Intelligence explains the market environment before the U.S. session. Stock-specific TT101 research remains in Daily Edge.

Market regime

Risk-Off · Transition

Technology stabilized, but the oil shock lifted inflation and rate risk while broad equities weakened.
Status: fragile into the Fed, GDP/PCE and mega-cap earnings.

Market pulse · Friday 23 October U.S. close / 24 October Asia readings

S&P 500

7,623.68−0.52% · 23 Oct close

VIX

19.44+2.21% · 23 Oct close

U.S. 10Y

4.999%+3.8 bp · 23 Oct close

Gold spot

$3,995.38/oz−0.72% · 24 Oct 06:55 JST

7 · Session game plan

Week-ahead priorities

Oil and Middle East risk → the inflation channel is now the fastest cross-asset transmission mechanism → energy, airlines, transports, rates and growth equities.
Wednesday Fed decision → an 89.7% hold remains priced, but the communication must address renewed energy inflation → Treasuries, USD, gold and duration.
Thursday GDP/PCE and Friday ECI → growth resilience versus sticky prices will shape the next rate repricing → banks, small caps and cyclicals.
Google, Microsoft and Amazon earnings → AI demand is less important than capex productivity and cash conversion → semiconductors, cloud and mega-cap leadership.
Narrow stabilization versus weak breadth → SOX strength alongside falling broad indexes needs confirmation → avoid reading one strong industry as a repaired tape.

1 · Daily trader control panel

Next week’s control points

A · Economic, Fed and Treasury calendar

Mon 26 Oct

Treasury

U.S. 2-year note auction

Tue 27 Oct

Treasury

5-year note auction

Wed 28 Oct

Fed · 2:00pm ET / Thu 03:00 JST

FOMC decision

Treasury

2-year floating-rate note auction

Thu 29 Oct

U.S. data · 8:30am ET / 21:30 JST

Q3 GDP advance; September personal income and outlays. Consensus not yet reliably available

Central bank

ECB decision

Treasury

7-year note auction

Fri 30 Oct

U.S. data · 8:30am ET / 21:30 JST

Q3 Employment Cost Index. Consensus not yet reliably available

Central bank

BOJ decision

B · Earnings calendar · 26–30 October

Mon 26 Oct
$VZ · Before market open
Tue 27 Oct
Before open: $KO

After close: $HOOD, $V

Time unconfirmed: $STX, $TER, $BA, $GLW
Wed 28 Oct
Before open: $VRT, $GEV

After close: $GOOG/$GOOGL, $NOW, $TMUS, $KLAC

Time unconfirmed: $MSFT
Thu 29 Oct
Before open: $LLY, $MRK, $CAT, $MA

After close: $AMZN, $COIN, $INTC, $SNDK

Time unconfirmed: $MPWR, $MSTR
Fri 30 Oct
Before open: $CVX, $ABBV, $XOM

What to watch: Cloud and AI capital spending, pricing, margins and forward demand.

C · IPO calendar

No U.S. IPO with clear broad market or sector relevance was verified for the immediate window.

3 · Prior U.S. session

Friday’s session was driven by the renewed oil shock and higher yields.

Energy led while consumer-sensitive groups and the Dow lagged; semiconductors and technology provided only partial offset.

The notable divergence was a positive SOX against falling broad indexes, leaving breadth weaker than the headline resilience in technology suggested.

5 · Market-/theme-significant corporate intelligence

$META · Meta

Meta reportedly agreed to acquire AI data-platform company Sundial. The strategic signal is continued vertical integration of model-data infrastructure; transaction terms were not disclosed.

$MRVL · Marvell

Marvell replaced its prior $1.5bn revolver with a new $3bn five-year facility and may seek a further $2bn increase. This materially expands liquidity flexibility for working capital and investment, but it does not establish how or when capital will be deployed.

Earnings Intelligence

Last Research Check 24 Oct 2026, 05:55 JST — Research Complete: No New Earnings. Next week’s calendar remains the relevant forward view. Full Earnings Intelligence.

Sentiment & Fed rate monitor

CNN FEAR & GREED INDEX

21 / 100EXTREME FEAR

Previous close 19 · 1 week ago 22 · 1 month ago 32 · 1 year ago 27. Sentiment improved slightly from the previous close but remains in extreme fear. Not a standalone trading signal.

Source: CNN Business · Updated 23 Oct 2026, 7:34:30 PM ET (user screenshot).

CME FEDWATCH · 28 OCT MEETING

Current Fed target: 3.75%–4.00%

Hold 90.6%Hike 9.4%

The futures market strongly expects no change at the next meeting. A quarter-point hike is the less likely outcome. These are market-implied estimates, not Fed decisions.

Source: CME FedWatch · User screenshot captured 24 Oct 2026, 08:55 JST. Table compares 22 Oct (hold 94.5%, hike 5.5%) and 16 Oct (hold 84.5%, hike 15.5%).

F · Market dashboard

Asset	Reading	Change / basis
VIX	19.44	+2.21% · close
U.S. 10Y	4.999%	+3.8 bp · close
U.S. 2Y	4.686%	+3.8 bp · close
2s10s	+31.3 bp	little changed
S&P 500	7,623.68	−0.52%
Nasdaq Composite	25,955.34	−0.21%
Russell 2000	2,775.90	−0.30%
SOX	10,779.5	+0.44%
DXY	101.751	+0.13% · 24 Oct 06:55 JST
USD/JPY	156.835	+0.04% · 24 Oct 06:55 JST
Gold spot	$3,995.38/oz	−0.72% · 24 Oct 06:55 JST
WTI	$103.27/bbl	+3.80% · settlement
Bitcoin	$81,256	−0.07% · 24 Oct 06:55 JST
MOVE	Unavailable	latest sources conflicted

Cash indexes, yields, VIX, SOX and WTI are Friday 23 October closes/settlement. DXY, USD/JPY, spot gold and Bitcoin are latest TradingView watchlist readings at the stated time.

2 · Market regime

Risk-Off · Transition · weakening. Volatility rose but remains below disorderly levels.

The curve stayed positively sloped as both 2Y and 10Y yields rose.

Leadership narrowed to energy and selective semiconductors; broad participation deteriorated despite technology stabilization.

4 · Politics / policy / macro

Escalating Middle East supply risk pushed Brent and WTI sharply higher, reopening the inflation-versus-growth trade immediately before the Fed, ECB and BOJ decisions.

The market channel is direct: higher energy costs can keep inflation expectations firm, constrain rate cuts and pressure transport and consumer margins.

6 · Prior economic data

U.S. flash PMIs

Indicator	Actual	Consensus	Prior
Manufacturing	56.0	55.5–55.6	55.9
Services	57.9	58.0	58.8
Composite	57.6	—	58.4

Michigan consumer sentiment

Indicator	Actual	Consensus	Prior
Final sentiment	48.0	46.3	48.1
1Y inflation expectations	4.7%	4.6%	—
5Y inflation expectations	3.5%	—	—

Market implication

The mix preserved the oil-driven inflation concern and helped keep yields elevated.

G · Japan physical precious metals

Nihon Material official publication: 23 Oct 2026, 10:00 JST (latest weekday publication; tax included, ¥/gram).

Metal	Retail	Buyback	Daily change
Gold	¥22,325	¥21,968	−¥836
Platinum	¥8,836	¥8,413	−¥373
Palladium	¥6,012	¥5,462	−¥225
Silver	¥310.75	¥293.70	−¥18.81

Source: Nihon Material

Market Intelligence. Better Decisions.
Research is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices and probabilities are time-sensitive.