TT101 DAILY INTELLIGENCE · 30 OCT 2026 · FRIDAY U.S. SESSION PREPARATION · THURSDAY 29 OCT CLOSE

Alphabet’s Cash Burn Splits the Market as Small Caps Advance.

Daily Intelligence explains the market environment before the U.S. session. Stock-specific TT101 research remains in Daily Edge.

Market regime

Selective · Rotational breadth

Thursday split sharply: Alphabet dragged mega-cap technology while small caps and much of the broader market advanced.
Status: selective rotation; breadth improved beneath weaker headline technology.

Market pulse · Thursday 29 October U.S. close / Friday 30 October early-Asia readings

S&P 500

7,720.39−0.30% · 29 Oct close

VIX

17.07+0.95% · 29 Oct close

U.S. 10Y

4.937%−6.6 bp · 29 Oct close

Gold spot

$4,020.57/oz−1.15% · 29 Oct, 5:00pm ET

7 · Session game plan

Friday session priorities

ECI and Chicago PMI → wages and activity test whether falling yields can persist → Treasuries, USD, small caps and duration.
Small-cap versus mega-cap divergence → Russell strength alongside Nasdaq weakness tests whether rotation can broaden → $IWM, $QQQ, semiconductors and equal-weight exposure.
AI demand versus cash conversion → Amazon, Intel and SanDisk results shift attention from demand to capex, margins and execution → cloud, chips and mega-cap leadership.
Rates and curve confirmation → yields fell and the curve flattened, while the last verified December probabilities still favored a hike → banks, growth equities, gold and the dollar.
Oil above $100 and BOJ/FX risk → energy inflation and yen volatility remain cross-asset pressure points → energy, transports, consumers, rates and USD/JPY.

1 · Daily trader control panel

This week’s control points

A · Economic, Fed and Treasury calendar

Mon 26 Oct · COMPLETED

U.S. session

No market-moving economic release was verified.

Tue 27 Oct · COMPLETED

U.S. data · 8:30–10:00am ET / 21:30–23:00 JST

Consumer confidence and new-home sales were completed; no fresh decision-changing surprise is carried into Friday’s setup.

Wed 28 Oct · COMPLETED

Fed · 2:00pm ET / Thu 03:00 JST

FOMC held the target range at 3.75%–4.00% by 10–2; two voters preferred a 25bp hike.

Treasury

2-year floating-rate note auction

Thu 29 Oct · COMPLETED

U.S. data · 8:30am ET / 21:30 JST

Q3 GDP was 3.4% annualized; September PCE inflation was 3.6% YoY; initial claims were 194K.

Central bank

ECB decision completed

Treasury

7-year note auction completed

Fri 30 Oct · TODAY

U.S. data · 8:30am ET / 21:30 JST

Q3 Employment Cost Index: +0.8% consensus vs +0.9% prior. Chicago PMI at 9:45am ET / 22:45 JST: 56.1 consensus vs 58.8 prior

Central bank

BOJ decision; exact release time unconfirmed. Fed Daly 12:00pm ET / Sat 01:00 JST; Fed Musalem 12:30pm ET / Sat 01:30 JST

B · Earnings calendar · 26–30 October

Mon 26 Oct
$VZ · Reported: adjusted EPS $1.31 vs ~$1.27; revenue $34.313bn vs ~$34.74bn; FY26 EPS/FCF guidance raised
Tue 27 Oct · COMPLETED
After close reported: $TER, $STX, $V, $HOOD

Also reported: $KO, $BA, $GLW

See Earnings Intelligence for verified results and guidance.
Wed 28 Oct · COMPLETED
Reported: $GEV, $VRT, $GOOG/$GOOGL, $TMUS, $MSFT, $NOW, $KLAC, $SKHY

See Earnings Intelligence for verified results, cash conversion and guidance.

AI demand was strong; capital intensity diverged.
Thu 29 Oct · COMPLETED
Reported before open: $LLY, $MRK, $CAT, $MA

Reported after close: $AMZN, $COIN, $INTC, $SNDK

Also reported: $MPWR; $MSTR timing unconfirmed
Fri 30 Oct · TODAY
Before open: $XOM, $CVX, $ABBV

What to watch: Energy cash returns and margins, AbbVie guidance, and whether post-earnings AI leadership broadens beyond a few names.

C · IPO calendar

No U.S. IPO with clear broad market or sector relevance was verified for the immediate window.

3 · Prior U.S. session

Thursday 29 October produced a sharp internal split: the S&P 500 fell 0.30% and Nasdaq Composite 1.38%, while the Russell 2000 rose 1.01%. Alphabet’s 12.64% drop after a step-up in AI spending dominated the headline indexes.

The session was rotational rather than uniformly risk-off. Small caps advanced, yields fell and the curve flattened; semiconductors and the Nasdaq lagged while healthcare and selected cyclicals held up.

Owner screeners for the 29 Oct session were filtered subsets, not full-market breadth. Trending ALL: 185 unique tickers, 37 (20.0%) above RSI 70 and none below 30; Trending DOWN: 69 unique tickers, 11 (15.9%) below RSI 30 and none above 70. Filtered participation was 72.8% bullish-list versus 27.2% bearish-list, up 1.2 percentage points. Top 1D: $GKOS +33.65% (RSI 87.1, 1M +57.91%, RVOL 5.10x, ADX 23.3), $ADT +33.20% (88.5, +59.07%, 22.30x, 29.4), $CROX +25.54% (77.6, +21.88%, 4.60x, 15.3). Bottom 1D within Trending ALL: $FTRE −10.61% (56.2, +16.31%, 2.37x, 43.8), $DXC −5.34% (65.4, +49.02%, 0.91x, 47.9), $FSLY −5.14% (51.9, +2.56%, 0.77x, 27.0). RVOL is activity, ADX is strength rather than direction, and RSI is context—not an automatic reversal signal. Comparable flow: Trending ALL 45 in/27 out; Trending DOWN 17 in/14 out.

5 · Market-/theme-significant corporate intelligence

$AMZN / $INTC · AI demand meets cash-flow and margin risk

Amazon Q3 sales were $201.9bn (+12% YoY), AWS $46.0bn (+39%) and operating income $28.1bn, but issuer-reported trailing FCF was −$42.4bn as capex accelerated. Intel Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5bn and data-center revenue 78% to $7.3bn, while client revenue fell 5% and supply constraints remain.

$SNDK / $MPWR · AI infrastructure demand broadens

SanDisk FQ1 revenue was $11.031bn (+378% YoY, +23% QoQ), with data-center revenue up 61% QoQ; next-quarter revenue guidance was $12.2bn–$12.6bn. Monolithic Power Q3 revenue rose 63.1% YoY to $1.202bn and guided Q4 to $1.315bn–$1.385bn.

Earnings Intelligence

Last Research Check 30 Oct 2026, 07:00 JST — New Earnings. $LLY Q3 revenue rose 39% YoY to $24.397bn; Mounjaro rose 65% and Zepbound 48%, while full-year revenue guidance increased to $91bn–$92bn. Pricing and rebate pressure remain key uncertainties. Full Earnings Intelligence.

Sentiment & Fed rate monitor

CNN FEAR & GREED INDEX

35 / 100FEAR

Previous close 35 · 1 week ago 19 · 1 month ago 31 · 1 year ago 42. Sentiment remains in fear, unchanged from the previous close. This is not a standalone trading signal.

Source: CNN Business · Updated 29 Oct 2026, 7:59:48 PM ET.

FED RATE MONITOR · 9 DEC MEETING

Current Fed target: 3.75%–4.00%

Hold 32.6%25bp hike 67.4%

For the December decision, futures imply a 67.4% chance of a 25bp hike versus 32.6% hold. The previous-day hike probability was 80.2% and the prior-week reading 72.0%. These are market-implied estimates, not Fed guidance.

Source: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor · Updated 30 Oct 2026, 11:35 JST. Current: hold 32.6%, 25bp hike 67.4%; previous day hold/hike 19.8% / 80.2%; previous week 21.9% / 72.0%.

F · Market dashboard

Asset	Reading	Change / basis
VIX	17.07	+0.95% · Cboe close
U.S. 10Y	4.937%	−6.6 bp · TradingView close
U.S. 2Y	4.602%	−8.3 bp · TradingView close
2s10s	+33.5 bp	−4.5 bp flatter
S&P 500	7,720.39	−0.30%
Nasdaq Composite	26,184.72	−1.38%
Russell 2000	2,859.22	+1.01%
SOX	11,522.45	−1.38%
DXY	101.87	−0.31% · 29 Oct close
USD/JPY	158.06	+0.06% · 29 Oct close
Gold spot	$4,020.57/oz	−1.15% · 29 Oct, 5:00pm ET
WTI	$102.78/bbl	+2.88% · 29 Oct settlement
Bitcoin	$78,818	−3.07% · 30 Oct 06:00 JST
MOVE	93.57	−1.03% · 29 Oct close

Cash indexes, VIX, yields, DXY, USD/JPY, spot gold, WTI and MOVE are dated Thursday 29 October. Bitcoin is continuously traded and uses a 30 Oct 06:00 JST observation. Cash indexes are not futures; spot gold is not gold futures or a gold ETF.

2 · Market regime

Selective · Rotation · transitioning. Thursday’s headline weakness was concentrated in mega-cap technology while small caps and much of the broader market advanced.

The 2s10s curve flattened to about +33.5bp as both yields fell, easing duration pressure but not eliminating policy uncertainty.

Owner screeners showed 72.8% bullish-list versus 27.2% bearish-list participation, improving 1.2 points, but the samples are filtered and are not market-wide breadth.

4 · Politics / policy / macro

The Fed’s 28 October hold remains the policy baseline. Friday’s wage-cost data and BOJ decision are the next scheduled tests for yields, the dollar and USD/JPY.

Middle East supply risk and WTI above $100 remain the clearest inflation channel into margins and rates; transports, consumers, duration and the dollar remain exposed.

6 · Prior economic data

Thursday data · completed

Indicator	Actual	Consensus	Prior
Q3 GDP annualized	3.4%	3.43%	2.2%
PCE inflation YoY	3.6%	3.6%	3.4%
Initial claims	194K	199K	195K

Market implication

Indicator	Actual	Consensus	Prior
GDP price index	2.2%	3.2%	6.1%
Personal income MoM	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%
Personal spending MoM	0.5%	0.6%	0.5%

Market implication

Growth remained firm and PCE inflation matched consensus, while softer yields did not prevent a sharp rotation out of mega-cap technology. Small-cap strength showed the session was not a uniform risk-off move.

G · Japan physical precious metals

Nihon Material official publication: 29 Oct 2026, 10:00 JST (tax included, ¥/gram).

Metal	Retail	Buyback	Daily change
Gold	¥22,707	¥22,350	−¥115
Platinum	¥8,773	¥8,350	−¥42
Palladium	¥5,896	¥5,346	−¥88
Silver	¥309.10	¥292.05	−¥4.07

Source: Nihon Material

Market Intelligence. Better Decisions.
Research is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices and probabilities are time-sensitive.