Market Regime Score Falls Below 50 as Hot CPI Revives Rate Pressure.
Daily Intelligence explains the market environment before the U.S. session. Stock-specific TT101 research remains in Daily Edge.
Regime: RISK-OFF · direction: weakening
The Market Regime Score closed at 47 on Tuesday, moving below the 50 risk-on line.
Market participation weakened after the inflation surprise. Leadership shifted toward health services, consumer durables and selected travel groups, while energy, industrial services and electronic technology remained under pressure.
7,520.93−0.38% · 10 Nov close
19.45−2.41% · 10 Nov close
5.00%+12 bp · 10 Nov close
$4,041/oz−1.80% · 10 Nov settlement
Wednesday-session priorities
- Veterans Day liquidity→ U.S. stocks are open while the Treasury cash market is closed; thinner bond liquidity can amplify reactions to rates headlines.
- Inflation reset→ October CPI rose 0.4% and core CPI 0.3%, both above consensus. The December rate path tightened and the Market Regime Score slipped back below 50.
- Rates versus risk appetite→ the two-year yield jumped toward 4.75% and the ten-year reached 5.00%, raising the discount-rate pressure on long-duration growth stocks.
- AI leadership test→ semiconductors and the Nasdaq weakened, while CoreWeave reported exceptional demand alongside heavy financing and capital-intensity risks.
- Rotation remains selective→ health services, consumer durables and travel-related groups retained stronger participation, while energy and electronic technology lagged.
This week’s control points
A · Economic, Fed and Treasury calendar
B · Earnings calendar · 10–13 November
- Tue 10 Nov · REPORTED
$CRWV reported Q3 revenue of $3.661bn, backlog of $132.5bn and a $709m net loss; 2026 revenue guidance rose to $13.0–13.3bn.
- Wed 11 Nov · TODAY
AMC: $CTVA and $FNV are among the material reports; smaller-company timing remains provisional.Focus on agriculture demand, gold-miner margins and whether company guidance confirms the session’s sector rotation.Release timing is verified where issuer notices are available; other calendar entries remain provisional.
- Thu 12 Nov
AMC: $AMAT and $NU are the main monitored reports.Semiconductor-equipment orders, China exposure and consumer-credit quality are the key read-throughs.The canonical Earnings Intelligence page was checked at 11 Nov 08:00 JST.
- Fri 13 Nov
The calendar is lighter; verify company timing before relying on provisional entries.PPI and the week’s rate repricing may dominate company-specific reactions.Earnings Intelligence remains the detailed source for reconciled results and cash-flow definitions.
- Next major test
$NVDA reports on 17 November; AI demand, margins and governance scrutiny will shape the wider technology read-through.
What to watch:whether earnings guidance supports selective leadership while the Market Regime Score remains below 50.
C · IPO calendar
No material imminent U.S. IPO with sufficiently verified timing was added; provider dates remain subject to change.
3 · Prior U.S. session
Tuesday 10 November: the S&P 500 fell 0.38%, Nasdaq Composite 0.74%, Dow 0.30% and Russell 2000 0.68%. VIX also eased 2.41% to 19.45.
Hotter-than-expected CPI and hawkish Fed commentary lifted Treasury yields sharply. The two-year yield approached 4.75% and the ten-year reached 5.00%, tightening financial conditions even as volatility stayed below 20.
The Market Regime Score fell to 47, shifting the public regime back to RISK-OFF. Momentum weakened broadly, but stronger health, consumer and travel groups show that risk appetite is selective rather than absent.
5 · Market-/theme-significant corporate intelligence
$CRWV · Record demand meets heavy financing costs
CoreWeave reported Q3 revenue of $3.661bn (+168% YoY) and backlog of $132.5bn, while net interest expense reached $846m and the net loss widened to $709m. It raised 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0–13.3bn and planned capital expenditure to $37–39bn.
$FDS · Medium-term AI and margin targets
FactSet targeted approximately 6% organic revenue CAGR, at least 36% adjusted operating margin and approximately 10% adjusted EPS CAGR through FY2029, while reaffirming its FY2027 outlook.
Earnings Intelligence
Last Research Check 11 Nov 2026, 08:00 JST —New Earnings. CoreWeave’s demand, backlog and raised guidance were verified against issuer results; financing cost, customer concentration and capital intensity remain the key risks. The detailed monitored-company analysis remains on the canonical page.Full Earnings Intelligence.
Sentiment & Fed rate monitor
Previous close 31 · 1 week ago 23 · 1 month ago 43 · 1 year ago 29. Sentiment remains in Fear despite VIX holding below 20; this is context, not a standalone trading signal.
Source: CNN Business· Latest published reading updated 10 Nov 2026, 6:59:51 PM ET; page accessed 11 Nov 2026.
Current Fed target: 3.75%–4.00%
For 9 December, futures imply a 94.4% chance of a 25bp hike to 4.00–4.25% and a 5.6% chance of a 50bp hike to 4.25–4.50%. Previous day: 82.8% for 25bp; previous week: 76.4%. These are market-implied estimates, not Fed guidance.
Source: Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor· Updated 10 Nov 2026, 5:05 PM EST. Current: 25bp hike 94.4%, 50bp hike 5.6%; previous day 25bp 82.8% with 17.2% hold; previous week 25bp 76.4% with 23.6% hold.
F · Market dashboard
| Asset | Reading | Change / basis |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.45 | −2.41% · 10 Nov close |
| U.S. 10Y | 5.00% | +12 bp · 10 Nov close |
| U.S. 2Y | 4.75% | +18 bp · 10 Nov close |
| 2s10s | +25 bp | −7 bp flatter |
| S&P 500 | 7,520.93 | −0.38% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,065.87 | −0.74% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,821.38 | −0.68% |
| SOX | 9,998.33 | −0.35% |
| DXY | 102.24 | +0.58% · 10 Nov close |
| USD/JPY | 158.77 | +0.55% · 10 Nov close |
| Gold · TV GOLD | $4,041/oz | −1.80% · 10 Nov settlement |
| WTI | $86.44/bbl | −0.47% · 10 Nov settlement |
| Bitcoin | $73,786 | −1.97% · 10 Nov close |
| MOVE | 92.44 | +7.50% · 10 Nov close |
Cash indexes, VIX, Treasury yields, DXY, USD/JPY, gold, WTI, Bitcoin and MOVE are dated Tuesday 10 November. Bitcoin trades continuously; cash indexes are not futures.
2 · Market regime
Market Regime Score: 47 · RISK-OFF · WEAKENING.The score moved below the 50 risk-on line as participation deteriorated after the inflation surprise.
Momentum weakened broadly. Health services, consumer durables and selected travel groups retained stronger leadership, while energy, industrial services and electronic technology lagged.
Mid-sized companies held up better than small and large companies, but the overall score shows that risk appetite is again selective. The curve flattened as short yields rose faster than long yields.
4 · Politics / policy / macro
October CPI rose 0.4% month on month and core CPI 0.3%, both above consensus. The hotter reading and hawkish Fed commentary lifted Treasury yields and increased the probability of a December rate hike.
Oil extended its pullback, but the inflation report shifted attention from energy relief to persistent services and shelter pressure. No new Fed, ECB, BOJ or BoE decision concluded since the BoE’s 5 November meeting.
6 · Prior economic data
Tuesday data · completed
| Indicator | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI, MoM | +0.4% | +0.3% | +0.6% |
| Core CPI, MoM | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| Shelter CPI, MoM | +0.3% | Unavailable | +0.4% |
Rates and policy
| Indicator | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. 2Y | 4.75% | +18 bp | 4.57% |
| U.S. 10Y | 5.00% | +12 bp | 4.88% |
| Fed target range | 3.75–4.00% | 94.4% 25bp hike | 3.75–4.00% |
Market implication
CPI exceeded consensus and short yields rose faster than long yields. Markets now price a December hike as the dominant outcome, while the public Market Regime Score has returned to RISK-OFF.
G · Japan physical precious metals
Nihon Material official publication: 11 Nov 2026, 10:00 JST (tax included, ¥/gram).
| Metal | Retail | Buyback | Daily change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | ¥22,803 | ¥22,446 | −¥396 |
| Platinum | ¥8,888 | ¥8,465 | −¥113 |
| Palladium | ¥5,990 | ¥5,440 | +¥6 |
| Silver | ¥298.87 | ¥281.82 | −¥6.93 |
Research is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Prices and probabilities are time-sensitive.