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TT101 DAILY MARKET INTELLIGENCE · ISSUE 64 · 25 SEP 2026

The Daily Edge

Yields Stay High. Buy-Zone Quality Stays Strong.

Official dated TT101 research snapshot. The live Daily Edge may evolve as new information arrives; this page preserves the 25 Sep 2026 edition.

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REGIME

Selective Risk-On / 10Y Yield Pressure

Trending 94 · QM+ 76 · TS Active 57 · Median RV 0.77 · Turnover ~$201B · New In 10 · Out 8 · Direct New 8

The index tape is subdued, but the opportunity set remains selective rather than broken. High yields argue for better location, not for abandoning high-quality M Support / TT Good RR setups.

Theme & Leadership Map

  • AI Compute / Memory — STRONG: AMD, INTC, MU, SNDK, ARM, STX, HPE
  • AI Networking / Optics — STRONG: APH, ANET, LITE, MRVL, GLW
  • Enterprise AI Software — STRONG: DDOG, NOW, VEEV, SHOP
  • Refining / Energy — EMERGING: MPC, VLO, FRO, APA
  • Data-Center Power — SELECTIVE: NVT, ETN, MPWR, VICR

Structural Entry Windows

Location first. These screens identify structural zones; research decides whether the story deserves capital.

CoreWatch M Support

APH 83.08
NVT 162.88
TER 387.70
AEM 193.88
DDOG 256.92

Leaders M Support

TXN 270.65
GLW 154.15
APH 83.08
TER 387.70
SHOP 145.16
CRM 238.22
NOW 137.78
MPWR 1335.55

Y Support

NYT 63.05
CLSK 14.26
SMCI 41.51

Convergence: APH + TER appear across all three M Support universes. NVT + DDOG are Core + Trend. TXN + SHOP + NOW + MPWR are Leader + Trend.

TT Swing + Trending Flow

  • DELL: LONG / RR(M) GOOD · RR(M) 2.1:1 · Day 16
  • APH: LONG / HOLD D3 · RR(Q) 3.6:1 · RR(M) 1.3:1
  • NVT: LONG / BREAKOUT D4 · RR(Q) 5.4:1 · RR(M) 1.1:1
  • HPE: LONG / BREAKOUT D13 · RR(Q) 0.1:1 · RR(M) 1.4:1
  • ETF context: IAU SHORT / BREAKOUT D2 · RR(Q) 7.3:1 · RR(M) 1.6:1

New In: CORT, CRL, FRO, GDDY, HCA, IONQ, MPC, MXL, SITM, VLO
Direct New: CRL, FRO, GDDY, IONQ, MPC, MXL, SITM, VLO
Graduated: ETN, NBIS, ULTA
Out: AKAM, ASML, EL, FCX, MDB, SNX, TSEM, U

MPC and VLO are the highest-quality Direct New catches. Research now; do not chase before TT Good RR / M Support appears.

Short Side

Trending DOWN: 32 names. Weakness is broad across retail, transport, finance, utilities and speculative/capital-intensive technology rather than one systemic break.

  • WULF — 16.29 vs M Resistance 16.51
  • CTVA — 79.45 vs M Resistance 81.47
  • BG — 110.21 vs M Resistance 112.77

WULF still carries HPC-transition catalyst risk; BG raised full-year EPS guidance after a strong Q2; CTVA is the cleaner “research next” name. The screen is a research filter, not an automatic short list.

Single Research Queue

  • TXN — SELECT: Q2 revenue +23% YoY; TTM FCF $6.5B; Q3 guidance stepped higher.
  • GLW — SELECT: Q2 core sales +17%; Optical +32%; Enterprise Networks +65%.
  • DELL — SELECT: fiscal Q2 revenue $47B, +58%; full-year revenue guidance raised to $192B.
  • APH — SELECT: Q2 sales +55%; organic +30%; orders $10.7B; FCF $1.2B.
  • NVT — SELECT: record sales, 47% organic growth, strong cash generation and raised outlook.
  • TER — SELECT: Q2 revenue +104%; semiconductor test demand driven by compute and memory tied to AI.
  • DDOG — SELECT: Q2 revenue +36% to $1.12B; FCF $279M.
  • SHOP — SELECT: broad 30%+ growth with strong FCF conversion.
  • NOW — SELECT: subscription growth, AI monetization and recurring software economics remain intact.
  • MPC / VLO — WAIT ENTRY: strong cash generation and refining economics; catalyst hot, location not yet.
  • NYT — Y SUPPORT: total revenue +11.2%; digital subscription revenue +16.4%; digital ads +20.7%; 13.35M subscribers.

Portfolio + Capital Decision

Current book / intent: ANET confirmed starter · ENTG confirmed starter · ETN order pending · NOW desired / unconfirmed.

Main factor risk remains the 10Y yield near 5.22%. ANET + ENTG already create AI-hardware exposure. NOW offers software diversification; ETN offers power-infrastructure diversification. Direct New remains research, not chase.

Final Desk Inference

  1. Selective Risk-On under hostile rates: favor location over chasing.
  2. AI compute, optics and enterprise software remain core leadership; refining is the important fresh theme.
  3. TXN is the cleanest high-quality Leader + Trending M Support setup; GLW, APH, NVT and TER also combine strong stories with structural location.
  4. DELL is the fresh TT Good RR name at RR(M) 2.1:1.
  5. MPC / VLO are the best Direct New discoveries, but entry location is not yet ready.
  6. NYT is the standout Y Support name.
  7. The short side improves context but does not justify a broad risk-off conclusion.
  8. NOW remains the cleanest software diversifier; ETN remains the power-infrastructure diversifier.
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