SPX
7,765.36−0.47%NASDAQ
27,193.34−1.25%VIX
15.40+2.19%10Y
5.235%−5.1 bpFEAR & GREED
38Fear · −701 / DAILY INTELLIGENCE
Market regime
StateNeutral → Risk-Off · Transition
StatusWeakening and increasingly selective
RatesRestrictive · bull-flattening
LeadershipEnergy led; AI hardware broke lower
Fed Rate Monitor
28 OCT HOLD81.6% · 3.75–4.00%
+25 BP HIKE18.4%
DEC HIKE~81%
As of8 Oct · CME FedWatch pricing
Fear & Greed
Latest38 · Fear
Yesterday45 · Neutral
Week / month29 / 39
Daily / weekly−7 / +9
A. Economic Calendar
22:30 JSTFed’s Schmid
23:00 JSTMichigan sentiment · 47.6 consensus
23:00 JSTInflation expectations
02:40 SATFed’s Musalem
What matters for Friday
Consumer testMichigan sentiment + inflation expectations
Oil / yieldsSupply risk; Treasury demand relieved duration
LeadershipSemiconductor damage vs flat small caps
FedPatience is not easing
DeltaFuel guidance / cyclical margins
Prior U.S. session
OilSupply risk lifted energy
ChipsRenewed AI-financing concerns
AuctionSolid 30-year demand reversed yield rise
BreadthDow higher; small caps flat
Politics, policy & macro
WallerMore tightening likely; room for October pause
MusalemAdditional hikes over six to nine months
Iran / energyFresh vessel sanctions; crude headline-sensitive
Prior economic data
Claims197K actual / 200K consensus
Prior199K revised
30Y auctionSolid demand
ReactionOil / chip stress dominated equities
02 / DAILY EDGE
Dashboard
Trending234 vs 239
Advance / decline136 / 95
Near M Support52
Downtrend / resistance125 / 18
Theme & Leadership Map
Tankers7/7 advanced · median +4.31%
Refiners9/9 advanced · median +3.76%
Semiconductors18/18 declined · median −3.33%
Software36/48 advanced
Research Queue
1 · MELIFCF +54.1% / revenue +46.0%
2 · VCTRFCF +113.6% / revenue +50.2%
3 · GLBEFCF +105.3% / revenue +31.4%
KVYO / SNOWProfitability / cash-conversion concerns
STNGHot theme; avoid chasing
Structural Entry Windows / Actionable Stocks
| Ticker | Price snapshot | FCF YoY | Revenue YoY | RR(Q/M) | Published verdict / condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | $1,856.66 | +54.1% | +46.0% | 2.7 / 2.7 | WAIT · conditional BUY SMALL after numerical risk verified |
| VCTR | $111.72 | +113.6% | +50.2% | — | WAIT FOR ENTRY · verify invalidation |
| GLBE | $40.15 | +105.3% | +31.4% | — | WAIT FOR ENTRY · verify invalidation |
| STNG | — | +59.5% | +32.7% | — | WAIT / DO NOT CHASE |
| SNOW | $343.40 | — | — | 3.1 / 4.5 | WATCH · quarterly FCF −64% |
| KVYO | $17.57 | — | — | 2.1 / 2.1 | WATCH · thin profitability |
Single Stock Deep Dive
CompanyMELI / MercadoLibre
VerdictWAIT · conditional BUY SMALL
BusinessMarketplace, logistics, payments / credit
Financials$8.93bn FCF · 5.30% net margin
Quarterly FCF+98.91% YoY
Catalyst4 November earnings listed
RisksCredit provisions, margins, regional macro
BlockerNumerical stop / target unverified
Final Inference
RotationEnergy supply constraints led
RegimeRestrictive rates / inflation prevent broad risk-on
PriorityMELI first; VCTR / GLBE secondary
STNGAttention, not a conflict-driven chase
WatchShipping, inflation expectations, yields, chip breadth
TT Swing
Alert coverage52 events / 37 instruments
MELI / SNOWFavorable LONG RR
NOW / KVYOBullish breakouts · Day 3 / Day 2
ETN / MU / MDBMIXED
STXSHORT · Day 3
CRWV / RKLB / IRENBearish breakouts
Catalyst Radar / Latest catalysts
SpaceX / TMUS800 MHz spectrum purchase → wireless competition
UncertaintyFCC approval, timing and economics unresolved
DIS / IMAXDisney premium large-screen format → competitive pressure
ALHC6/7 contracts ≥4 stars; California H3815 at 3.5