What matters for Friday

1. Payrolls and wages → labor strength can reverse the bond rally; weakness may shift attention from inflation to growth. Exposed: front-end Treasuries, DXY, Nasdaq, semiconductors and gold.
2. Bond relief versus inflation risk → lower discount rates help growth valuations, but renewed input-cost pressure limits confidence in lasting relief. Exposed: banks, homebuilders, small caps and long-duration growth.
3. Fuel-export restrictions → supply restrictions can transmit into diesel shortages, freight costs and household purchasing power. Exposed: energy, transports, inflation breakevens and Treasuries.
4. Rebound versus market internals → persistent new-low pressure leaves a recovery vulnerable even when index leaders stabilize. Exposed: Russell 2000, equal-weight indexes and lower-quality cyclicals.
5. AI services and contracted power → enterprise adoption and long-term electricity commitments support the theme, with capacity additions arriving over years. Exposed: IT services, nuclear generators and data-center infrastructure.

Today’s calendar

A. Economic Calendar

Payrolls, unemployment and wages are released together at 8:30 ET / 21:30 JST; factory orders follow at 10:00 ET / 23:00 JST. Sources: BLS schedule and Trading Economics.

B. Earnings Calendar

Calendar cross-check: Nike IR · Accenture IR · consensus calendar.

C. IPO Calendar

Sources: IPO reporting · IPO context.

Thursday close / latest dashboard

F. Market Dashboard

MOVE omitted: reliable closing value unavailable. Rates and FX are Oct. 1 late-afternoon quotes; Bitcoin is a 17:46 ET snapshot with quote-day change. Gold is futures, not spot. Sources: AP equity closes · SOX quote · Reuters oil settlement.

Fear & Greed and Fed monitor

D. Fear & Greed

Daily change: −3 · Weekly change: −8. Source: FearGreedMeter live index.

E. Fed Rate Monitor

Current target range: 3.75%–4.00%. CME probabilities are market prices, not forecasts. Prior-day comparison uses the same CME series; later-path distribution was not reliably retrieved. Source: Reuters / CME FedWatch.

Prior U.S. Session

Early losses reversed as Treasury buying and a patient Fed tone supported equities. Energy led; technology also helped. Advancers narrowly led on both exchanges, but Nasdaq new lows outnumbered highs 287-to-41, leaving the recovery internally fragile. Reuters session recap.

Politics / Policy / Macro

• Fed patience: Jefferson signaled time before the next move; Kashkari still sees further tightening into 2027. Patience at one meeting does not settle the longer policy path.
• Fuel supply / trade: Reuters reports China suspended fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, while Washington urged emergency European diesel releases under threat of U.S. export restrictions. This raises transport-cost and inflation risk. Reuters.

Market-/Theme-Significant Corporate Intelligence

• Accenture: reported broad-based growth and revenue above guidance. The results support enterprise technology spending and AI-services demand despite disruption concerns. Accenture results.
• Constellation / Amazon: signed a 20-year, 690-MW nuclear-power agreement, including a 190-MW uprate targeted for 2030–32. Contracted AI power demand supports investment; new capacity is not immediate. Constellation release.

Prior Economic Data

Manufacturing input prices accelerated sharply while activity barely eased. Claims remained low; the inflation signal and labor resilience complicate the rates outlook. Sources: Reuters · Release data.

Japan Physical Precious Metals

G. Japan Physical Precious Metals

Latest Nihon Material publication: 1 Oct 2026, 10:00 JST. Latest available before the Oct. 2 publication. Tax included; ¥/gram.

Source: Nihon Material official market page.

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